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  • 铁矿石期货还能涨多久?-中信建投期货杭州分公司
  • 本站编辑:中信建投期货杭州分公司发布日期:2020-06-02 10:24 浏览次数:


铁矿石期货还能涨多久?

作者:钱欢 

期货投资咨询证号:Z0015175




铁矿石期货还能涨多久?-中信建投期货杭州分公司



5月份来,铁矿石录得黑色最强品种,一个月上涨26.28%。那么未来还会继续上涨吗?涨这么多会回调吗?多单能否继续持有还是减仓,没有进的多单是否可以进去?这些是投资者现在最关心的问题。


我们先来捋一下这波铁矿石的涨价逻辑,最根本的就是供不应求。价格上涨的逻辑一般有二,一是远低于成本以下,价格会快速上涨回归;二是供不应求,且持续,且更紧张。显然,铁矿石属于后者。所以说,这波供不应求的涨价还未结束。


我们再深入了解铁矿石的基本面。首先是库存不断下降,港口库存远低于去年,还在继续下跌的趋势中,钢厂库存也是保持低位,钢厂仍旧有补库需求。


二是需求一直保持高位,后将面临库存不足,被动需求下降的局面。然而,在螺纹钢如此高的产量下,却会面临更加艰巨的库存不足的去库,这个被动需求下降则会隐含更大的能量。


三是最近一直炒作的供应,就是巴西的发货量。关于巴西的发货量更多是人为政策的影响,这个不确定性很难预计。但是,就上周一晚出来的供应环比上涨60%的消息,也只是引发一天的下跌,后发生了报复性的反弹。可以说,市场对于供应的问题,已经有了快速消化的能力,仍旧回到铁矿石供不应求的基本面上来。所以说,供应端发生的问题,会引起短期的市场干扰因素,但是不改供不应求的局面。


综上所述,铁矿石供不应求的情况短期看不到改善的信号,而是会一直维持且加剧,所以,铁矿石依旧看好。


   

   Author: Qian Huan

   Futures Investment Consulting Certificate No. : Z0015175

   

   Since May, iron ore has recorded the strongest black variety, a month of gains26.28%. So is there more to come? Will it be a pullback? Many single can continue to hold or reduce positions, did not enter many single can go in? These are the questions investors are most concerned about right now.


To put the logic of this wave of iron ore prices at a glance, the bottom line is that demand outstrips supply. The logic of price rise generally has two, one is far below the cost, the price will quickly rise back; The second is that demand exceeds supply, and it is persistent and more intense. Iron ore is clearly the latter. So the surge in demand is not over yet.


Let's dig deeper into the fundamentals of iron ore. The first is the continuous decline of inventory, port inventory is much lower than last year, is still in the downward trend, the steel mill inventory is also kept low, steel mills are still replenishing the demand.


Second, the demand has been high, will face inventory shortage, passive demand decline. However, at such a high output of rebar, there will be a more difficult destocking of insufficient stocks, and this passive decline in demand will imply greater energy.


The third is the supply that has been hyped recently, namely the amount of Brazilian shipments. That uncertainty is hard to predict, given that Brazil's shipments are more the result of artificial policy. But news late on Monday of a 60 per cent month-on-month rise in supply triggered only a one-day fall before a retaliatory rebound. It can be said that the market has the ability to quickly digest the supply issue, still back to the iron ore supply fundamentals. Therefore, the supply side of the problem, will cause short-term market disruption factors, but do not change the situation in short supply.


To sum up, the short - term improvement of iron ore supply will not be seen, but will be maintained and intensified, so iron ore remains optimistic.

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