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  • 石油与美元-国际原油的计价器-中信建投期货杭州分公司
  • 本站编辑:中信建投期货杭州分公司发布日期:2020-06-04 16:42 浏览次数:


石油与美元-国际原油的计价器



伴随着上世纪70年代中期石油价格提高,以美国为主导的“石油美元”闪亮登场。国际原油皆以美元为计价标准,产油国将出售原油的美元盈余投入美国国债市场,形成了“石油美元”体系的根基。而当前,在疫情影响下油价持续处于低位,WTI原油期货价格曾快速下跌并一度跌为负值,创下原油期货交易的历史,“石油美元”体系的基础或已开始动摇。我们认为,未来新冠疫情发展趋势及国际石油市场、石油地缘政治的变化发展将是决定“石油美元”体系走向的主要因素。


上世纪70年代初,石油价格大幅提高,石油输出国的石油收入大幅增加,其国际收支经常项目随之出现巨额盈余。1974年之后,石油交易以美元计价结算,这些在国际市场上的石油盈余资金统称为石油美元。


美国主导下的“石油”美元体系具有两个内核:第一,国际石油贸易以美元作为计价和结算货币;第二,产油国出口石油所获得的收入扣除进口开支之外主要用来购买美元计价的金融资产


在当今世界经济的发展中,石油成为了工业生产和经济运行发展最重要的动力能源,而美元贯穿于全球经济体系中,石油在化石能源中的首要地位和美元在国际货币体系的首要地位不仅是世界经济持续发展的重要因素,也是石油美元体系形成的基础。


第一,石油成为工业生产和经济运行发展最重要的动力能源。


第二,美元成为世界上最主要的储备货币。


美国作为二战后西方世界的领导者,美元的流通渠道得以大幅扩张,这也决定了美元在与黄金脱钩后迅速锚定了世界经济发展所必须的石油资源,成为“石油美元”体系形成的另一个基础因素。



Oil and the DOLLAR - the meter for international crude oil

With the rise in oil prices in the mid-1970s, the US-led "petrodollar" came into being. International oil prices are denominated in dollars, and oil-producing countries invest the dollars they sell into the U.S. Treasury market, forming the foundation of the "petrodollar" system. At present, under the impact of the epidemic, oil prices remain low. WTI crude oil futures prices have fallen rapidly and once turned negative, setting a record for crude oil futures trading. The foundation of the "petrodollar" system may have begun to shake. We believe that the future development trend of coVID-19, changes in the international oil market and oil geopolitics will be the main factors determining the direction of the "petrodollar" system.

When oil prices rose sharply in the early 1970s, the oil revenues of the oil-exporting countries soared and their current account balances ran huge surpluses. After 1974, oil trading was denominated in dollars, and these surplus funds in the international market were collectively known as petrodollars.

The "oil" dollar system led by the United States has two cores: first, international oil trade is denominated and settled in DOLLARS; Second, oil-producing countries' revenue from oil exports is used to buy dollar-denominated financial assets after deducting import expenses

In today's world economic development, petroleum became the most important industrial production and development of economic operation of power energy, while the dollar throughout the global economic system, the oil in the leading position in the fossil energy and the primary status of the dollar in the international monetary system is not only the world an important factor of sustainable economic development, and also formed the basis of petrodollars system.

First, petroleum has become the most important power source for industrial production and economic development.

Second, the DOLLAR has become the world's leading reserve currency.

As the leader of the Western world after the Second World War, the circulation channel of THE US dollar expanded greatly, which also determined that the US dollar quickly anchored the oil resources necessary for the development of the world economy after decoupling from gold, and became another basic factor for the formation of the "petrodollar" system.




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